DATA VIZ · HELLO TOMORROW
The Middle Class
Squeeze

1970 → 2024 · Productivity, Wages & The Cost of Actually Living

PRODUCTIVITY VS. WAGES
CUMULATIVE GROWTH SINCE 1973 (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)
Worker Productivity
Median Hourly Wages
+250% +200% +150% +100% +50% 0% 1973 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2024 70% GAP +250% +29%
THE COST OF ACTUALLY LIVING
PRICE INCREASES SINCE 1973 VS. WAGE GROWTH (INFLATION-ADJUSTED)
0% +200% +400% +600% +800% +1000% +29% WAGES +177% PUBLIC COLLEGE +1,045% HOME PRICES +1,400%+ HEALTH- CARE ~+2,000% CHILD- CARE
If wages tracked productivity
$73
Average hourly wage today. Actual: $30.13/hr. Half goes missing. PERI / UMass
Inflation-adj. mortgage increase since 1990
+40%
Average 2024 mortgage vs. 1990, after adjusting for inflation. GOBankingRates / JCHS
Corporate profits as % of GDP
11%
In 2024. Was under 6% in 2000. The economy grew — for someone. Federal Reserve via Clockify
Wage growth outside tight labor markets
0%
Median wages only grew during worker-shortage years. Otherwise: flat. EPI / Clockify
HOURS OF WORK TO AFFORD NECESSITIES
1970 VS. 2024 · AT AVERAGE HOURLY WAGE · MEASURED IN TIME, NOT DOLLARS
1970
2024
Median home2.1× more life
1970
7,113 hrs  (3.6 years)
2024
14,800 hrs  (7.4 years)
2.1×
New car2.6× more life
1970
~640 hrs
2024
~1,640 hrs  (41 weeks)
2.6×
1970
~470 hrs
2024
~1,375 hrs
2.9×
1970
~90 hrs
2024
~1,820 hrs  ($25,572 total premium)
20×
The Claim
The argument: working-class people are spending themselves into poverty on things they don't need.

According to the 2024 BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, the average household spent $78,535. Here's where that money actually went:

Housing: 33.4%  ·  Transportation: 17.0%  ·  Food: 12.9%  ·  Healthcare: 7.9%  ·  Insurance & pensions: 12.5%

That's 83.7% of the average household budget on things nobody calls vanity. Entertainment — the closest proxy for "convenience" — accounts for 4.6%. Apparel: 2.5%. Together: 7.1 cents on the dollar.

Meanwhile, the categories rising fastest are the ones households can't cut. Nobody cancels their car insurance because it went up 12%. Nobody stops eating because protein prices jumped 21.5%. The squeeze is concentrated in non-discretionary spending — by definition, the opposite of vanity.

The Claim
The argument: if people just bought what they actually needed, the market would provide it at a price they could afford.

This sounds like consumer sovereignty — the idea that demand drives supply and we get what we choose. But it inverts the actual causality at work in consolidated markets.

When a family health insurance premium costs $25,572 a year, that's not a preference. When median gross rent rose 36% between 2019 and 2024 while incomes rose 24%, tenants didn't "choose" to pay more — they paid because the alternative was homelessness. Markets only respond to demand when consumers have genuine alternatives. Remove the alternatives and you don't have a market. You have a toll booth.

The tell: the categories where prices have exploded the most — housing, healthcare, childcare — are precisely the categories where market concentration is highest and exit options are lowest. That's not consumer behavior. That's captive demand. Blaming the buyer for the price is the oldest misdirection in the book.

The system didn't fail. Wages grew a modest +29% since 1973. Productivity grew +250%. Home prices grew +1,045%. Family health premiums hit $25,572 a year. Corporate profits doubled as a share of GDP.

The system performed exactly as its incentive architecture demanded — extracting the surplus upward, while workers stayed just solvent enough not to riot. That's not a cultural problem. That's engineering.

Hello Tomorrow Podcast
There's a name for what we should build instead.
It's called The Commons.

The data above describes a system structurally incapable of fixing itself from within — not because of bad people, but because the incentive architecture forecloses the action. The question isn't whether the market is broken. It's whether we can build something alongside it.

This episode maps out what that looks like: a parallel economy, The Commons, where necessities are removed from the profit motive. This is what we need to build.

▶  Watch the episode
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